Current Market Structure
On the 4-hour timeframe, EURJPY remains in a clear bullish structure, with price continuing to print higher highs and higher lows.
Recent price action has:
- Broken above the previous week’s high
- Continued to push into new highs
- Maintained momentum above all key moving averages
As a result, the sell zone has been adjusted higher to reflect the most recent structure.
Location on the Curve (Premium vs Discount)
Using the higher timeframe framework:
- Price is currently trading in high premium territory
- Price is extended above the weekly 20 SMA (orange line)
- Price is also extended relative to the 4H structure and moving averages
This places current price at the upper end of the range, not in a favorable area for initiating buy positions.
Key Levels on the Chart
- Sell Zone (Red): Recently adjusted to align with new highs
- Weekly Pivot (White Line): Acting as a major reference point for potential reaction
- Moderate Premium / Equilibrium Levels: Below current price and not yet tested during this move
These levels will guide decision-making going forward.
Trade Direction Planning
Buy Scenario
At this time, no buy setup is being considered.
Reason:
- Price is not in a discount area
- Price is extended after a strong bullish move
- Risk-to-reward for buys at current levels is unfavorable
For buys to become valid, price would need to:
- Retrace into a discount or equilibrium zone
- Form bullish structure from that level
Until then, buys are not part of the plan.
Sell Scenario (Primary Focus)
Current conditions favor preparing for a potential sell setup, but no entry is valid yet.
What is required:
1. Break of Structure on the 4H
Price must stop making higher highs and begin forming lower highs or a clear shift in momentum.
2. Retest of the Premium Zone
After a break, price should retrace back into the premium area (sell zone).
3. Confirmation (BRACE Entry)
A valid bearish confirmation candle or pattern is required before entry.
Without these three steps, no trade should be taken.
Market Condition Summary
- Trend: Bullish (currently intact)
- Location: High Premium
- Condition: Extended
- Trade Bias: Preparing for Sell (with confirmation)
Execution Plan
- Do not enter at current price levels
- Monitor for structure shift on the 4H
- Wait for retest and confirmation before considering any sell
- Ignore buy setups unless price retraces into discount
Conclusion
EURJPY is currently in a strong uptrend but trading at the upper end of its range.
At these levels:
- Buying is not favorable
- Selling is not yet confirmed
The correct approach is to wait for a confirmed shift in structure before entering any position.
